ER Easy-Reliability
new product development design for reliability physics of failure damage & fatigue modeling

Build reliability into new products — from day one.

Free engineering tools purpose-built for New Product Development (NPD) teams. Every tool takes a Design for Reliability (DfR) stance with a Physics of Failure (PoF) perspective, using first-principles damage-accumulation and fatigue mathematical modeling — so reliability decisions happen at the design desk, not after the first field return. Drop your email once and get access to every tool as it ships.

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§ 01 · Methodology

The approach

These tools are made for the New Product Development phase — the window where design decisions actually move the reliability needle. Every tool supports that same loop: model the physics, accumulate the damage, project the reliability, iterate the design.

Built for New Product Development

The payoff from reliability work is largest when it lands before tooling freezes and production ramps. These tools are shaped for the NPD timeline: concept, architecture, prototype, and verification — fast enough to stay inside design iterations, rigorous enough to defend in a phase-gate review.

Design for Reliability (DfR)

Reliability is built in at the design stage, not tested in at the end. Every tool fits into the design loop — so engineers can make informed geometry, duty-cycle, and material choices before prototypes go on test, and iterate cheaply when data comes back.

Physics of Failure (PoF)

Failures are physical events — fatigue crack growth, wear, thermal degradation, lubricant breakdown. PoF models capture the underlying mechanism, so projections stay meaningful when loads, temperatures, or duty cycles change. No more purely empirical curves that break the moment field conditions shift.

Damage & fatigue modeling

Under the hood, each tool uses established damage-accumulation math — Miner's rule, S-N and ε-N curves, Paris-law crack growth, inverse-power-law and Arrhenius acceleration — to turn a messy real-world load spectrum into a defensible reliability number at design time.

§ 02 · Cost of waiting

Why start reliability work during NPD

The cost of fixing a reliability issue grows by roughly an order of magnitude at each gate. The ability to influence reliability through design choices drops just as fast. The NPD window is where both curves cross in your favor.

Cost to fix a reliability issue versus the stage of new product development As a product moves from concept through design, prototype, verification, production, and field, the cost to fix a reliability issue grows from about 1× to about 10,000×, while the ability to influence reliability drops from nearly 100% to near zero. NPD SWEET SPOT 10× 100× 1,000× 10,000× Cost to fix (log scale) Concept Design Prototype Verification Production Field Stage of new product development INFLUENCE ON RELIABILITY 10× 100× 1,000× 10,000× COST TO FIX ACT HERE high influence · low fix cost
Cost to fix — solid, rising Ability to influence reliability — dashed, falling

1× at concept

Changing a dimension, material, or duty-cycle assumption in a CAD model costs almost nothing.

10× at prototype

Re-working a prototype build means new parts, rebuild hours, and re-entering the test queue.

100–1,000× in production

Tooling changes, scrap, line stoppage, and qualification re-runs add up fast.

10,000× in the field

Warranty returns, recalls, brand damage, and regulatory exposure — the expensive end of the curve.

§ 03 · Exit value

Reliability maturity moves enterprise value at exit

Two startups can enter the data room with the same revenue and the same base valuation — and leave with very different deal terms. Reliability evidence is the lever.

Enterprise-value impact of reliability maturity at exit Reliability-weak startups lose roughly 35% of base enterprise value to diligence adjustments, escrow, warranty haircuts, and earn-out risk. Reliability-mature startups gain roughly 37% through multiple expansion, lower warranty reserves, a cleaner EBITDA bridge, and lower R&W insurance premiums. RELIABILITY — WEAK value erodes in diligence RELIABILITY — MATURE value compounds at exit BASE EV · 1.00× Diligence adjustments −10% +18% Multiple expansion Warranty reserve haircut −12% +8% Lower warranty reserve Escrow & holdback −14% +7% Clean EBITDA bridge Earn-out clawback risk −18% +4% Lower R&W premium EXIT · OUTCOME 0.65× OF BASE ENTERPRISE VALUE EXIT · OUTCOME 1.37× OF BASE ENTERPRISE VALUE Δ > 2.10× TRANSACTION · VALUE · SPREAD Illustrative. Deltas vary by sector · buyer type · product class.
Cleaner diligence. Mechanism-aware reliability models remove the openings a buyer uses to negotiate the multiple down.
Lower warranty reserve. A mature growth curve defends lower accruals — gross margin and unit economics hold up.
Faster time-to-synergy. The acquirer executes the plan they paid for instead of firefighting in year one.
Earn-out & R&W protection. PoF evidence de-risks product-quality reps and lowers insurance premiums.
§ 04 · Instruments

Available tools

Each tool is free. Sign up with your email in the section below to reveal the download links.

Reliability Growth tool screenshot

Reliability Growth Tool

Track, model, and project reliability growth across test-fix-test cycles.

  • Crow-AMSAA and Duane model fitting with goodness-of-fit
  • Projected MTBF and remaining test-hour calculations
  • Import failure data from CSV or Excel
  • Export growth curves and summary reports as PDF
  • Handles grouped and event-time failure data
v0.1.0 · Windows / macOS / Linux
Test Synthesis tool screenshot

Test Synthesis Tool for Robot Joints

Generate accelerated life-test profiles tailored to robot-joint duty cycles.

  • Duty-cycle ingestion from CSV or teach-pendant logs
  • Miner-rule damage accumulation across mixed load bins
  • Inverse-power-law and Arrhenius acceleration factors
  • Target-reliability sample-size calculator (Weibull)
  • Exports a lab-ready test sequence (speed / torque / dwell)
v0.1.0 · Windows / macOS / Linux
Derating tool screenshot

Derating Tool

Apply a derating policy across your BOM and flag components that live too close to their ratings.

  • Policy library: NASA PPL-21, MIL-HDBK-217F, Telcordia SR-332, AIAA S-111, custom
  • Per-component stress-ratio calculation (voltage, current, power, junction temp)
  • Pass / Warn / Over-limit flagging with hotspot clustering
  • Ingests BOM + stress data from CSV or altium/eCAD exports
  • One-page audit PDF ready for the phase-gate review
v0.1.0 · Windows / macOS / Linux
Product · NPD · Design for Reliability · Growth modeling

Reliability Growth Tool

A desktop companion for the development-test phase of New Product Development. Fit growth models to your early failure data, overlay Physics-of-Failure insight about which failure modes are actually being fixed, and project how many more test hours you need to clear the reliability phase-gate.

Reliability Growth tool interface

The problem it solves

Test-fix-test programs generate messy failure data: different failure modes, corrective actions layered on top of each other, grouped vs. event-time records, and a program manager asking "are we going to make target by the delivery date?" Hand calculation is tedious and spreadsheet templates are brittle. This tool does the fit, the projection, and the reporting in one place — and ties each failure event back to a Physics-of-Failure classification, so the growth curve reflects real mechanism changes rather than just bookkeeping.

How you'd use it in a typical program

  1. Drop in your failure log — CSV, Excel, or copy-pasted from a test rig. The tool handles both event-time and grouped-interval formats.
  2. Pick a growth model. Crow-AMSAA is the default because it matches most DoD/IEC frameworks; Duane is there for legacy comparisons and Gompertz for saturating growth.
  3. Review the fit. Goodness-of-fit statistics and confidence intervals are shown so you know whether the model is actually believable.
  4. Project forward. The tool tells you the test hours required to reach any target MTBF, with an upper/lower bound.
  5. Export the summary — a one-page PDF with growth curve, fit metrics, and projection tables that you can drop into a review deck.

Who it's for

NPD reliability engineers running development-test programs for new hardware — especially at the "we're one or two prototypes in" stage where you need to convince program management that reliability is on track without pretending you have more data than you do, and translate the curve into concrete design-change priorities before the next build.

Product · NPD · Physics of Failure · Damage & fatigue synthesis

Test Synthesis Tool for Robot Joints

For the verification phase of a new joint program. Turn expected or measured duty cycles into a lab-ready accelerated test profile — Miner's-rule damage accumulation and inverse-power-law acceleration compress years of field use into weeks of bench time while preserving the failure-mode signature, so the test still exercises the physics the next-gen design has to survive.

Test Synthesis tool interface

The problem it solves

Robot joints — harmonic drives, RV reducers, rotary servos — don't see a single load in the field. They see a spectrum: high-torque pick-and-place, medium-torque transit, thermal soak at idle. Each bin of that spectrum accumulates damage differently (contact fatigue scales very nonlinearly with torque; grease life bends with temperature). If you test at worst-case you're pessimistic and waste budget; if you test at average you miss the failure modes that actually matter. The usual fix is hand-rolled spreadsheets that collapse the spectrum to a single equivalent load, and those spreadsheets are always slightly wrong. This tool does it right — using a Physics-of-Failure model of the joint and proper damage accumulation math across bins.

How the tool synthesizes a test

  1. Ingest the field duty cycle — CSV from teach-pendant logs or any speed/torque/temperature time-series you have.
  2. Bin the load spectrum by torque, speed, and temperature. The binned histogram becomes the "field load" baseline.
  3. Apply Miner's rule across bins, weighted by the S-N curve of the joint's critical component (configurable). This gives a total damage fraction per field year.
  4. Pick an acceleration factor using inverse-power-law on torque and Arrhenius on temperature. The tool shows you the trade-off between lab time and how aggressive the acceleration is — aggressive is faster but may unlock failure modes that don't happen in the field.
  5. Generate the accelerated test sequence: step-load profile, dwell times, thermal cycling, and the number of samples needed for your target reliability (B10 / B1 at a confidence level).
  6. Export the sequence as a CSV or PDF ready to hand to the lab technician.

Who it's for

NPD reliability and test engineers who need a defensible accelerated test plan and a clean answer to "how many hours of bench testing equals five years of field life?" — at the phase where the design is being locked but the verification plan still has to fit inside a launch timeline. Particularly useful when you have log data from an early-generation joint and need to qualify the next generation.

Product · NPD · Design for Reliability · Stress-ratio auditing

Derating Tool

A desktop tool that audits a bill of materials against a derating policy — NASA PPL-21, MIL-HDBK-217F, Telcordia SR-332, AIAA S-111, or your own internal spec. Walks every part, computes applied/rated stress ratios for voltage, current, power, and junction temperature, and tells you which components are Pass, Warn, or Over-limit before the design leaves the desk.

Derating tool interface

The problem it solves

Derating is the quiet workhorse of NPD reliability: pick parts that sit comfortably below their datasheet limits and infant-mortality and wear-out both retreat. But in practice derating lives as a spreadsheet that somebody updates at review time, and only a few rails get checked — usually the ones that burned in the last program. This tool walks the whole BOM, applies a published (or internal) derating policy line-by-line, and flags the parts that are running hot, over-voltage, or over-current before a prototype is built. No more finding out in qual that the status LED is at 98% of I_F_max or that a 0.1 µF MLCC is sitting at 95% of rated V_rms.

How you'd use it in a typical program

  1. Drop in your BOM and the per-part applied stresses — CSV, Excel, or an eCAD export. The tool auto-matches reference designators to stress fields (V, I, P, T_j, ripple).
  2. Pick a derating policy. NASA PPL-21 is the default; MIL-HDBK-217F, Telcordia SR-332, AIAA S-111, and a fully user-editable "custom" policy are all one click away.
  3. Review the audit. Each row shows the stress ratio as a color-coded bar and a Pass / Warn / Over-limit flag — with worst-case ratios surfaced at the top.
  4. Drill into hotspots. The tool clusters warnings by rail, by thermal zone, and by component family so you can attack systemic issues (one resistor network, a whole gate-driver rail) rather than chase individual parts.
  5. Export the one-page audit PDF — policy name, counts, worst offenders, recommended part substitutions — to drop straight into a phase-gate deck.

Who it's for

NPD electrical and reliability engineers going into a schematic-complete or pre-layout review, especially on programs where the derating policy is non-negotiable (aerospace, medical, automotive) and there is no patience for a spreadsheet audit that only covers half the BOM. Equally useful as a lightweight in-house standard for consumer-electronics teams who want a defensible derating story without spinning up a full MIL-HDBK pipeline.

§ 05 · Access

Get access

Enter your email once and the download links appear below. You'll also get a note whenever a new tool or update ships.

Thanks — your download links are below. You'll hear from me when new tools or updates are released.

Reliability Growth Tool

Track, model, and project reliability growth across test-fix-test cycles.

v0.1.0 · Windows / macOS / Linux

Test Synthesis Tool for Robot Joints

Generate accelerated life-test profiles for robot-joint duty cycles.

v0.1.0 · Windows / macOS / Linux

Derating Tool

Audit a BOM against a derating policy and flag over-stressed parts.

v0.1.0 · Windows / macOS / Linux
§ 06 · Contact & feedback

Get in touch

Questions, bug reports, feature requests, or just a note about how a tool is being used in your program — all welcome. The tools improve fastest when real users push on them.

Direct contact

Easiest route is email. I read every message and usually reply within a couple of days.

Email
[email protected]
Response time
Typically 2–3 business days.

What helps most

When reporting a bug, please include the tool name and version (shown in the app's title bar), the operating system, and a short description of what you expected vs. what happened. A sample input file — anonymized if needed — makes reproduction ten times faster.